The International Monetary Fund expects Morocco’s economy to grow 4.5% this year and 4.2% in 2027, according to its October 2026 World Economic Outlook, published for the annual meetings held in Bangkok from October 12 to 18.
What the IMF projects for Morocco
Le Matin reports that the 2026 figure is 0.1 point below the IMF’s April projection, while the 2027 forecast was cut by 0.3 point, from 4.5% to 4.2%. APA News lists further forecasts for the kingdom:
- Inflation of 0.9% in 2026, rising to 1.4% in 2027.
- A current account deficit widening to 4.9% of GDP in 2026, then narrowing to 4.1% in 2027.
- Unemployment of 12.2% in 2026, easing to 11.3% in 2027.
The global picture
For the world economy, the Fund projects growth of 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from April and down from 3.5% in 2025, before a pick-up to 3.4% in 2027. Global headline inflation is expected to climb to 4.7% this year from 4.1% in 2025, then ease back to 4.1% in 2027.
Energy and food costs weigh on the outlook. The IMF assumes an average oil price of $96 a barrel in 2026, which Le Matin says is 16% above the previous reference scenario, and expects fertilizer prices to rise 10% and food prices 5% this year.
The Fund also notes that downward revisions affect roughly 47% of economies, and that public debt is projected to climb in both advanced and emerging economies by 2031.
How it compares at home
The IMF’s numbers sit alongside domestic estimates. As we reported, Morocco’s High Commission for Planning expects 4.1% growth in the third quarter, helped by a rebound in farm output, and recorded annual inflation of 0.5% in September.
Taken together, the forecasts point to a Moroccan economy still growing faster than the global average, with inflation low by international standards, even as the IMF trims its medium-term outlook slightly.
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