Morocco’s economy is expected to expand 4.1% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP), as a strong farming recovery and resilient household demand offset pressure from higher energy costs.
Agriculture leads, industry still lags
The HCP’s quarterly outlook, as reported by Morocco World News and Le Matin, points to agriculture as the main driver, with output forecast to rise 19.9%. Services are projected to grow 3.9%. Industry remains the weak spot: secondary activities are expected to shrink 1.9%, a smaller decline than the 3.9% drop estimated for the second quarter.
- Household consumption is forecast to rise 4.1%.
- Gross fixed capital formation is projected to grow 6.2%, helped by infrastructure projects.
- Foreign trade is estimated to subtract 1.2 percentage points from growth, an improvement on the 1.6-point drag in the second quarter.
- Consumer prices are expected to fall 0.3%, with food prices down 3.6% largely because of cheaper olive oil.
Money, markets and the dirham
The HCP expects credit to the economy to grow 11.1% and Bank Al-Maghrib to keep its key rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight quarter. It also forecasts the dirham to weaken 2.2% against the euro and 3.8% against the US dollar, and the MASI stock index to end the quarter 6.8% lower than a year earlier.
A stronger fourth quarter?
Looking further ahead, the HCP’s central scenario sees growth accelerating to 4.7% in the fourth quarter, with a higher figure of about 5.3% possible if energy price pressures ease. Together, agriculture and services are expected to add roughly four points to growth.
For more on the central bank’s stance, see our report on Bank Al-Maghrib holding its rate at 2.25%, and on the water outlook behind the farm rebound, Morocco’s fullest dams in a decade.
Sources: Morocco World News; Le Matin
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